Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.320359 0.363332 0.409963 0.464328 0.525987 0.593765 0.673951
2025-10-05 0.265111 0.323591 0.391831 0.477380 0.581840 0.705354 0.862675
2025-10-12 0.216979 0.282935 0.365103 0.475082 0.618628 0.799926 1.046816
2025-10-19 0.182572 0.253072 0.346378 0.479075 0.663325 0.910723 1.269261
2025-10-26 0.158024 0.231870 0.335272 0.490891 0.719817 1.045310 1.545338
2025-11-02 0.130490 0.201859 0.307165 0.474226 0.733568 1.122515 1.753452
2025-11-09 0.106886 0.173702 0.277224 0.449745 0.731385 1.175408 1.933409
2025-11-16 0.091089 0.155052 0.258814 0.439943 0.750002 1.262409 2.180370
2025-11-23 0.077946 0.138589 0.241307 0.428618 0.763917 1.343209 2.429347
2025-11-30 0.070466 0.130587 0.236688 0.438381 0.815129 1.494185 2.823942
2025-12-07 0.060495 0.116549 0.219360 0.422584 0.817696 1.558798 3.070725
2025-12-14 0.053274 0.106506 0.207792 0.415601 0.835366 1.653242 3.388436
2025-12-21 0.046617 0.096767 0.195817 0.406892 0.850163 1.747972 3.730375
2025-12-28 0.043145 0.092897 0.194792 0.420099 0.911547 1.945286 4.318624
2026-01-04 0.038780 0.086480 0.187633 0.419374 0.943610 2.087131 4.812957
2026-01-11 0.035406 0.081681 0.183180 0.423845 0.987850 2.262283 5.413027
2026-01-18 0.032924 0.078498 0.181782 0.434993 1.049124 2.485226 6.163955
2026-01-25 0.028993 0.071323 0.170287 0.420739 1.048374 2.564796 6.583079
2026-02-01 0.025148 0.063752 0.156743 0.399387 1.026893 2.591461 6.874889
2026-02-08 0.022538 0.058840 0.148876 0.390936 1.036506 2.696447 7.388678
2026-02-15 0.020172 0.054179 0.140942 0.381057 1.040829 2.788697 7.885226
2026-02-22 0.018969 0.052399 0.140099 0.389853 1.096655 3.025229 8.824147
2026-03-01 0.016882 0.047893 0.131436 0.375910 1.087469 3.084383 9.267220